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造纸业淘汰落后产能供需矛盾难解
作者:    发布于:2014-07-28 22:01:50    文字:【】【】【

 工信部近日公布了2014年首批淘汰落后和过剩产能企业名单,涉及15大行业,其中水泥行业以381家企业居首,造纸和铁合金分列二、三位。根据名单统计,造纸行业2014年年底前共需淘汰约397万吨产能。此次工信部要求列入公告名单内企业的生产线(设备)在2014年底前彻底拆除淘汰,不得向其他地区进行转移。

  近年来受宏观经济复苏势头较弱的影响,造纸行业需求增速持续在低位维持,供需格局趋弱,行业景气度较为低迷。此次淘汰落后产能能够在客观上小幅缓解行业供给端压力,但是考虑到部分生产线前期已关停,实际对供给端的影响或将小于数字层面的表现,从而对供需格局的改善程度有限。从细分行业角度看,此次淘汰落后产能仍然主要分布在瓦楞纸和文化纸,考虑到瓦楞纸和文化纸本身产能基数较大,淘汰落后产能虽能缓解行业产能过剩矛盾,但幅度有限。

  整体来看,在淘汰落后产能、环保政策趋严和行业景气度低迷的背景下,小企业将加快退出市场,但是造纸行业整体产能伴随着大企业的继续扩张而有所上升,未来造纸行业景气度难以发生实质性改善。


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